Values in Care

    Annual low-dose CT screening for lung cancer

    Whether to start annual low-dose CT (LDCT) screening for lung cancer.

    Adults aged 50 to 80 with a 20 pack-year smoking history who currently smoke or have quit within the past 15 years.

    The Task Force recommends annual LDCT screening for this group and concludes with moderate certainty that it has a moderate net benefit. The evidence review records benefits and harms that people weigh differently.

    The options

    Start annual LDCT screening

    A low-dose CT scan each year, with a follow-up protocol if a nodule or other finding appears.

    • In the National Lung Screening Trial, three rounds of annual LDCT reduced lung cancer mortality compared with chest radiograph; 323 people needed to be screened to prevent 1 lung cancer death over 6.5 years of follow-up.

      Applies to: High-risk current and former smokers aged 55 to 74 in the NLST.

    • In the NELSON trial, four rounds of LDCT at increasing intervals reduced lung cancer mortality compared with no screening; 130 people needed to be screened to prevent 1 lung cancer death over 10 years of follow-up.

      Applies to: High-risk current and former smokers aged 50 to 74 in NELSON.

    • For every 1000 people screened in the NLST, false-positive results led to 17 invasive procedures, and fewer than 1 person had a major complication.

      Applies to: NLST participants. Most studies reviewed did not use current nodule evaluation protocols.

    • Overdiagnosis estimates varied greatly across studies, from a 0% to a 67% chance that a lung cancer was overdiagnosed.

      Applies to: Across the trials reviewed.

    • Incidental findings were common, with estimates ranging from 4.4% to 40.7% of people screened.

      Applies to: Across the trials reviewed.

    • Harms include increases in distress and, rarely, radiation-induced cancer.

      Applies to: People screened with LDCT.

    • Screening is annual, and is discontinued once a person has not smoked for 15 years or develops a health problem that substantially limits life expectancy or the ability or willingness to have curative lung surgery.

      Applies to: Adults aged 50 to 80 meeting the smoking-history criteria.

    Do not start screening for now

    No scan now. Eligibility and the choice can both be revisited.

    • The reduction in lung cancer mortality that LDCT produced in these trials is forgone by not screening.

      Applies to: High-risk current and former smokers of the ages studied.

    • The harms the review attributes to screening are false-positive results leading to unnecessary tests and invasive procedures, overdiagnosis, incidental findings, distress, and rarely radiation-induced cancer. Not screening avoids them.

      Applies to: People eligible for LDCT screening.

    • The annual scan and any follow-up it triggers do not take place.

      Applies to: Adults who would otherwise be screened annually.

    Set against what matters to you

    Read from what you saved on this device.

    Speaks to what matters to you

    Nothing yet. Mark what matters to you, and anything the sources say about it shows up here.

    Pulls in two directions

    Nothing so far pulls against anything else.

    Still unknown

    • Nothing is marked as a priority yet, so nothing here is connected to what matters to you. The options and their sources are still readable below.

      Not in the sources here.

    • Trial participants were more likely to benefit than the US screening-eligible population, for example based on life expectancy.

      Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality evidence review for the USPSTF, 2021 statement

    • Most studies reviewed did not use current nodule evaluation protocols, which might reduce false-positive results and invasive procedures.

      Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality evidence review for the USPSTF, 2021 statement

    • Results were not pooled across trials because populations and screening protocols differed.

      Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality evidence review for the USPSTF, 2021 statement

    • What a screening program near you offers, its follow-up protocol, and its cost and coverage are not carried in this record.

      Not in the sources here.

    Worth asking

    • Do I meet the eligibility this recommendation describes, and how was my pack-year history worked out?
    • If a nodule is found, what is the follow-up protocol here, and what would it involve for me?
    • How often does this program act on an incidental finding, and what would that mean for me?
    • What changes the plan if I stop smoking, or if another health problem changes what surgery I could have?
    Start with what matters

    Sources

    • US Preventive Services Task Force. Screening for Lung Cancer: US Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement. JAMA. 2021;325(10):962-970.

      https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.1117

      Read 2026-09-11 from the PubMed record (structured abstract of the version of record).

    • Jonas DE, Reuland DS, Reddy SM, et al. Screening for Lung Cancer With Low-Dose Computed Tomography: Updated Evidence Report and Systematic Review for the US Preventive Services Task Force. JAMA. 2021;325(10):971-987.

      https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.0377

      Read 2026-09-11 from the PubMed record (structured abstract of the version of record).

    Each statement above paraphrases one of these sources closely. Filing it under a priority is our editorial choice.